Gallium (CN)

Full briefing

Gallium is a soft, silvery metal recovered as a trace byproduct during the refining of aluminum from bauxite ore. With a global primary production of roughly 300–400 tonnes per year, it is one of the rarest industrial metals. China's dominance in aluminum smelting translates directly into gallium dominance: Chinese smelters account for approximately 80% of global gallium output. In the semiconductor supply chain, gallium is chiefly used in two compound forms. Gallium nitride (GaN) is a wide-bandgap semiconductor used in high-frequency RF power amplifiers (critical for 5G base stations and radar), power conversion switches, and — increasingly — microLED displays. Gallium arsenide (GaAs) underpins high-frequency analog chips used in smartphones and satellite communications. These compound semiconductors are manufactured by materials specialists such as Sumitomo Chemical and Mitsubishi Chemical in Japan, which purchase refined gallium metal and produce GaN and GaAs substrates and epitaxial wafers. On August 1, 2023, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs implemented licensing requirements covering eight gallium-related items, including gallium metal, gallium nitride, gallium arsenide, gallium phosphide, and gallium antimonide. Exporters must demonstrate that end uses are civilian and non-proliferation compliant. Approval timelines are opaque, creating supply uncertainty for downstream manufacturers. The controls are widely viewed as a tit-for-tat response to U.S. and allied semiconductor equipment restrictions on China. Gallium's criticality, combined with its extremely limited substitutability in GaN RF applications, makes it a high-leverage point in the technology competition. Global producers outside China — including Nyrstar (Belgium) and Aluminerie Alouette (Canada) — are ramping capacity, but matching China's scale within a few years is considered unlikely.