Export-Control Impact Simulator
U.S. BIS Advanced Computing Export Controls (Oct 2023)
The U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security expanded controls on advanced AI chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, prohibiting sales of GPUs exceeding performance thresholds to China. The rules targeted NVIDIA A100/H100-class chips and required licenses for any chip enabling large-scale AI training. This effectively cut off China's cloud providers and AI labs from the latest U.S.-designed accelerators.
Current Status
Modified. The Trump administration rescinded Biden's January 2025 AI Diffusion Rule and replaced it with a revised framework effective January 15, 2026. Advanced AI chip exports to China are now evaluated on a case-by-case basis subject to supply-chain, security, and testing conditions. A temporary ban on NVIDIA H20 chips (April 2025) was lifted in July 2025; as of May 2026, NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI308 chips may be sold to China under verified licensing conditions.
Company cascade
Who loses access when this control fires — directly and downstream.
| Status | Company | Layer | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEGRADED | Alibaba Cloud🇨🇳 China | CLOUD PROVIDERS | China's #1 cloud provider; deploys Alibaba Hanguang 800 AI c… |
| DEGRADED | ByteDance🇨🇳 China | CLOUD PROVIDERS | TikTok/Douyin parent; one of the world's largest AI compute … |
| DEGRADED | OPPO🇨🇳 China | EDGE DEVICES | China's #2 smartphone maker (OPPO/OnePlus/Realme brands); ma… |
| DEGRADED | Tencent Cloud🇨🇳 China | CLOUD PROVIDERS | China's #2 cloud provider; major AI GPU buyer pivoting to H2… |
| DEGRADED | Xiaomi🇨🇳 China | EDGE DEVICES | China's #1 smartphone maker by volume; primary MediaTek Dime… |
✓ 3030 unaffected companies (shown for context)▾
| Status | Company | Layer | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Unaffected | Anthropic🇺🇸 United States | AI CONSUMERS | AI safety company; creator of Claude LLM; primary cloud is A… |
| ✓ Unaffected | Applied Materials🇺🇸 United States | EQUIPMENT | Largest semiconductor equipment maker by revenue |
| ✓ Unaffected | Arista Networks🇺🇸 United States | NETWORKING | #1 cloud-scale Ethernet switch vendor; powers AI training cl… |
| ✓ Unaffected | Arm Holdings🇬🇧 United Kingdom | CHIP IP | Dominant CPU/NPU IP licensor; virtually all AI chips in mobi… |
| ✓ Unaffected | AWS🇺🇸 United States | CLOUD PROVIDERS | World's largest cloud provider and AI infrastructure buyer |
| ✓ Unaffected | Baidu🇨🇳 China | CLOUD PROVIDERS | China's leading AI pioneer; designs Kunlun AI chips (Samsung… |
| ✓ Unaffected | Biren Technology🇨🇳 China | CHIP DESIGNERS | China's leading GPU startup; BR100 was TSMC-fabbed at 7nm bu… |
| ✓ Unaffected | Cambricon🇨🇳 China | CHIP DESIGNERS | China's publicly listed AI chip designer (STAR Market); MLU-… |
| ✓ Unaffected | Cisco Systems🇺🇸 United States | NETWORKING | #2 data center networking vendor; Nexus 9000 series and prop… |
| ✓ Unaffected | CoreWeave🇺🇸 United States | CLOUD PROVIDERS | GPU-native cloud provider; operates one of the world's large… |
| ✓ Unaffected | CXMT🇨🇳 China | MEMORY (HBM) | China's leading DRAM maker, targeting DDR4/DDR5 at mature no… |
| ✓ Unaffected | DeepSeek🇨🇳 China | AI CONSUMERS | Chinese AI lab backed by High-Flyer quant fund; developed De… |
| ✓ Unaffected | Foxconn Industrial Internet (FII)🇹🇼 Taiwan | SERVER ODMs | Foxconn's AI server ODM division; assembles GPU clusters for… |
| ✓ Unaffected | Google Cloud🇺🇸 United States | CLOUD PROVIDERS | Hyperscaler deploying custom TPU AI accelerators (v5e via Br… |
| ✓ Unaffected | Huawei / HiSilicon🇨🇳 China | CHIP DESIGNERS | China's leading chip designer (Kirin mobile, Ascend AI); on … |
| ✓ Unaffected | Huawei Cloud🇨🇳 China | CLOUD PROVIDERS | China's third-largest cloud provider; runs Huawei Ascend 910… |
| ✓ Unaffected | KLA🇺🇸 United States | EQUIPMENT | Dominant maker of wafer inspection and metrology tools |
| ✓ Unaffected | Lam Research🇺🇸 United States | EQUIPMENT | Leading supplier of etch and deposition equipment |
| ✓ Unaffected | MediaTek🇹🇼 Taiwan | CHIP DESIGNERS | World's #1 mobile SoC designer by volume; Dimensity AI chips… |
| ✓ Unaffected | Meta🇺🇸 United States | AI CONSUMERS | One of the world's largest GPU buyers; designing MTIA v2 cus… |
| ✓ Unaffected | Microsoft Azure🇺🇸 United States | CLOUD PROVIDERS | Second-largest cloud; OpenAI exclusive compute partner; depl… |
| ✓ Unaffected | NVIDIA🇺🇸 United States | CHIP DESIGNERS | Dominant AI GPU designer (H100, H200, B200) |
| ✓ Unaffected | Qualcomm🇺🇸 United States | CHIP DESIGNERS | Leading mobile SoC and edge AI chip designer (Snapdragon X E… |
| ✓ Unaffected | Quanta Computer🇹🇼 Taiwan | SERVER ODMs | World's largest ODM by revenue; primary AI server manufactur… |
| ✓ Unaffected | Samsung Mobile🇰🇷 South Korea | EDGE DEVICES | World's largest smartphone maker; uses both Qualcomm Snapdra… |
| ✓ Unaffected | SMIC🇨🇳 China | FOUNDRIES | China's largest foundry; capped at 14nm without EUV access; … |
| ✓ Unaffected | Tokyo Electron🇯🇵 Japan | EQUIPMENT | Leading maker of etch and deposition equipment |
| ✓ Unaffected | Vertiv🇺🇸 United States | POWER & COOLING | Critical power and thermal management for AI data centers |
| ✓ Unaffected | xAI🇺🇸 United States | AI CONSUMERS | Elon Musk's AI company; built Colossus — world's largest GPU… |
| ✓ Unaffected | YMTC🇨🇳 China | MEMORY (HBM) | China's largest 3D NAND maker; Entity Listed Dec 2022, prima… |
Cascade timeline
How the restriction propagates tier by tier.
- 1
Rule applied
- Restricting country: 🇺🇸 United States
- ✂ Qualcomm → Xiaomi
- ✂ Qualcomm → OPPO
- ✂ NVIDIA → ByteDance
- ✂ NVIDIA → Alibaba Cloud
- ✂ NVIDIA → Tencent Cloud
- 2
Round 1
- Xiaomi
- OPPO
- ByteDance
- Alibaba Cloud
- Tencent Cloud
Geographic flow
Explore free-form
Build your own scenario. Both axes are multi-select — add as many countries as you like.
Both Restricting and Target are multi-select chips, not single dropdowns — stack several restrictors against several targets at once.
How do GPU distributors manage export control compliance?
Distributors and hardware vendors must classify each shipment under ECCN, screen denied parties against the BIS Entity List, and maintain audit trails. Modern export compliance software automates these tasks — replacing spreadsheets and government portals.
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